A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
